一口气了解全球经济形势

小Lin说
7 Mar 202430:25

Summary

TLDR本视频深入分析了全球经济现状,特别是美国、日本、中国和印度的经济状况。美国债务上限再次被突破,日本股市创新高,而印度的GDP增长领先。视频讨论了各国经济增长的亮点与风险,以及全球经济从2022年的危机主题到2023年的复苏,再到2024年的正常化趋势。特别关注了日本的经济困境、中国的稳健增长、印度的强劲发展以及全球供应链重组对各国经济的影响。

Takeaways

  • 🌐 2022年全球经济主题是危机,包括通货膨胀、利率上升和能源危机。2023年的主题是复苏,这些危机已得到控制,利率上升基本结束。
  • 📈 2023年全球一些大型经济体的增长情况,印度增长最快,达到7.3%,中国为5.2%,而沙特阿拉伯和德国排在最后。
  • 🇯🇵 日本2023年GDP增长1.9%,尽管经历了连续两个季度的负增长,陷入理论性衰退,但通胀率达到3%,失业率保持稳定,股市表现强劲。
  • 💰 日本央行的货币政策在过去两年非常谨慎,逐步放松了十年期国债利率上限,从0.25%逐步增加到1%,并根据市场情况灵活调整。
  • 🇩🇪 德国在2023年的经济表现出乎意料地困难,但日本经济数据的下滑更多是由于日元贬值导致的名义GDP下降,而非实际经济实力的减弱。
  • 🇺🇸 美国和印度经济表现强劲,而日本和德国的经济情况则相对复杂。
  • 🇨🇳 中国2023年GDP增长5.2%,CPI通胀上升0.2%,城市调查失业率平均率为5.2%,央行正处于更为谨慎的降息周期。
  • 🇮🇳 印度经济在2023年的强劲增长主要得益于政府的基础设施投资和国内需求的稳定,而非外国直接投资或制造业的直接推动。
  • 🏗️ 印度政府的基础设施投资在过去两年中以超过30%的速度增长,主要用于道路建设、城市建设等,这直接反映在GDP增长上。
  • 💡 印度的人口红利、城市化、数字化等因素为其经济发展提供了持续动力,尽管面临人工智能等新兴技术的挑战。
  • 📉 印度股市在2023年表现强劲,上涨约20%,但市场存在内幕交易等问题,与实体经济的关联度不高。

Q & A

  • 2022年全球经济的主题是什么?

    -2022年全球经济的主题是危机,包括通货膨胀、利率上升和能源危机等。

  • 2023年全球经济的主题有何变化?

    -2023年全球经济的主题转变为复苏,通货膨胀和能源危机得到了控制,利率上升基本结束。

  • 根据演讲者的观点,美国和印度的经济表现如何?

    -根据演讲者的观点,美国和印度的经济表现都比预期的要强。

  • 日本在2023年失去了世界第三大经济体的地位,主要原因是什么?

    -日本失去世界第三大经济体地位的主要原因是日元对美元的汇率大幅贬值,导致按美元计价的名目GDP大幅下降,被德国超越。

  • 演讲者如何描述日本过去两年的经济状况?

    -演讲者用'尴尬'一词来描述日本过去两年的经济状况,其中包括通货膨胀的出现、央行对收益率曲线的控制不确定性、汇率下跌、资本外流以及食品通胀与工资不增长等问题。

  • 印度在2023年的GDP增长率是多少?

    -印度在2023年的GDP增长率是7.3%。

  • 印度政府在基础设施建设上的投资对GDP有何影响?

    -印度政府在基础设施建设上的投资对GDP有直接影响,因为这些投资能够立即反映在GDP增长中。

  • 印度的人口红利如何影响其经济增长?

    -印度的人口红利与其城市化、数字化等一系列发展相结合,为经济增长提供了持续的推动力。

  • 印度面临的人工智能风险是什么?

    -印度面临的人工智能风险在于,其服务行业占GDP的比重超过一半,而人工智能的发展可能导致大量基础客服或IT员工失业。

  • 国际货币基金组织(IMF)对印度2024年的经济增长率有何预测?

    -IMF预测印度2024年的经济增长率将为6.5%,通货膨胀率将回落至4.6%。

  • 演讲者为什么认为印度的女性劳动力参与率是一个发展潜力?

    -演讲者认为印度的女性劳动力参与率仅为20%多一点,这意味着有近一半的劳动力尚未得到释放,如果这部分潜力得到激活,将成为印度的一大发展优势。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 全球经济概述

本段落介绍了全球经济的概况,包括美国再次突破债务上限、日本股市创新高、公司工厂迁移至印度等事件。提到了全球经济的主题从2022年的危机、通胀、加息、能源危机,转变为2023年的复苏,以及对2024年正常化的展望。特别强调了美国和印度经济的强劲表现,以及通过GDP增长数据对主要经济体的分析,揭示了日本和德国在经济排名上的变化及其原因。

05:01

🇯🇵 日本经济的复杂性

详细讨论了日本经济的复杂性和挑战,包括长期的通胀率低迷、日本央行的货币政策、以及近期由于全球通胀和能源危机导致的日元贬值和进口通胀。分析了日本消费水平未恢复至疫情前水平的原因,以及日本央行在利率政策上的困境,探讨了日本政府的债务水平和央行退出非常规货币政策的可能性和影响。

10:01

🇯🇵 日本经济政策的挑战

继续深入探讨日本经济政策的挑战,特别是央行在负利率和收益率曲线控制政策上的困境。讨论了日本央行逐步放松长期国债利率上限的市场反应,以及央行在政策正常化方面的谨慎态度。强调了2024年对日本经济的重要性,尤其是央行是否决定提高利率的关键因素,包括消费水平和工资增长。

15:01

🇨🇳 中国经济概况

提供了中国2023年的经济数据,包括GDP增长率、CPI通胀率和城市调查失业率。提及中国央行目前处于一个更加谨慎的降息周期。虽然报告中未详细讨论中国经济的具体情况,但强调了中国经济增长的稳定性和政策的谨慎性。

20:03

🇮🇳 印度经济的强劲增长

概述了印度经济的强劲表现,GDP增长率领先于世界主要经济体,并且通胀基本控制在6%以下。讨论了印度经济增长的驱动因素,包括地缘政治因素、外国直接投资(FDI)以及制造业的发展。指出印度政府在基础设施投资上的大量支出,以及印度国内需求的稳定性。同时,提到了印度面临的风险,包括人口问题、种姓冲突、大选、贫富差距等。

25:06

🤖 人工智能对印度经济的影响

探讨了人工智能对印度经济的潜在影响,尤其是服务行业可能面临的就业挑战。提到印度政府对AI浪潮的紧张态度和应对措施。预测了印度2024年的经济增长率和通胀率,以及股市的表现。最后,提到了视频内容将分为两部分,下一部分将继续讨论美国和德国的经济情况。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡全球经济

全球经济是指世界各国和地区的经济活动及其相互关系的总和。在视频中,提到了全球经济的主题从2022年的危机、通货膨胀、加息、能源危机等,转变为2023年的复苏,通货膨胀和能源危机得到控制,加息基本结束。这表明全球经济正在从困难中逐渐恢复。

💡债务上限

债务上限是指一个国家政府允许自己借债的最高限额。在美国,债务上限的设定是为了防止政府无限制地增加债务。视频中提到美国再次打破了债务上限,意味着美国政府将继续增加债务以维持其财政支出。

💡通货膨胀

通货膨胀是指货币购买力下降,导致商品和服务价格普遍上涨的经济现象。视频中讨论了全球多个国家面临的通货膨胀问题,以及各国央行为了控制通胀所采取的加息政策。

💡货币政策

货币政策是指由中央银行或货币当局制定和实施的,影响一个国家货币供应量和利率水平的政策,以达到控制通胀、促进经济增长等宏观经济目标。视频中提到日本央行的货币政策,包括负利率和收益率曲线控制等非常规政策。

💡经济增长

经济增长是指一个国家或地区在一定时期内生产总值(GDP)的增加,通常用来衡量经济发展水平和经济活动的健康程度。视频中分析了多个国家的经济增长率,如印度、中国和德国,并探讨了影响这些国家经济增长的因素。

💡供应链

供应链是指商品从原材料阶段到最终产品并交付给消费者的全过程中,所涉及的所有企业和活动的网络。视频中提到了全球供应链的重组,特别是在地缘政治因素影响下,企业寻求多元化风险,将部分供应链转移到其他国家,如印度和越南。

💡人口红利

人口红利是指一个国家或地区在特定时期内,劳动年龄人口比例增加,从而为经济发展提供的潜在优势。视频中提到印度拥有巨大的人口红利,并且随着城市化和数字化的发展,这些资源更加紧密地联系在一起,为经济增长提供了持续动力。

💡消费

消费是指家庭或个人购买商品和服务的行为,它是推动经济增长的重要因素之一。视频中提到印度的消费非常强劲,尽管其外部需求相对较弱,但国内需求稳定,对经济增长起到了关键作用。

💡基础设施投资

基础设施投资是指政府或私人部门对交通、能源、通信等基础公共服务领域的投资。视频中提到印度政府在基础设施上的投资是推动其经济增长的关键因素之一,包括道路建设、城市建设等。

💡人工智能

人工智能是指由人造系统所表现出来的智能行为,它能够通过学习和适应来执行复杂任务。视频中提到人工智能的发展可能对印度的服务行业产生重大影响,因为它可能导致大量基础客户服务人员或IT员工的失业。

Highlights

2022年全球经济主题是危机,包括通货膨胀、加息、能源危机等。

2023年全球经济主题是复苏,通货膨胀和能源危机得到控制,加息基本结束。

美国和印度经济比预期更强。

2024年全球经济主题是正常化,即软着陆避免经济衰退。

日本经济数据2023年第四季度显著低于预期,失去世界第三大经济体地位。

日本失去第三大经济体地位主要是由于日元大幅贬值。

日本经济增长率虽有所提升,但实际经济情况复杂。

日本央行货币政策的困境,既面临货币贬值压力,又需考虑是否加息。

日本工资增长滞后于通胀,实际购买力下降。

日本股市强劲上涨,巴菲特投资日本市场并推动公司分红。

印度经济2023年增长强劲,GDP增长率达到7.3%。

印度经济增长主要得益于政府基础设施投资。

印度政府减少对穷人的补贴,增加基础设施支出。

印度的人口红利和城市化、数字化发展是其经济增长的长期驱动力。

印度面临的风险之一是人工智能的发展可能影响其服务业就业。

中国2023年GDP增长率为5.2%,CPI通胀上升0.2%。

德国2023年经济表现意外疲软。

Transcripts

00:00

Hello all

00:01

We have a big project today.

00:02

Let's have an overview of

00:04

the global economic

00:07

I guess you have seen

00:08

a bunch of headlines from all over the world.

00:09

The United States has broken the debt ceiling again.

00:11

The Japanese stock market has reached a new high.

00:12

Certain company has moved its factory to India,

00:14

etcetera

00:14

Maybe you only

00:15

hear about it

00:16

but have not think carefully about

00:18

what is the current situation of these economies.

00:20

Today, Lin plans to

00:21

walkthrough this with you

00:22

from a more professional perspective

00:23

and from the direction of macroeconomics.

00:29

Let's do this. First take a look at

00:31

the summary of the entire global economy.

00:33

so that you get an idea

00:34

Then we pick a few major economies

00:36

and break them down one by one

00:37

What are the good and bad parts,

00:38

what are the risks

00:39

Of course, I am not an economist

00:41

there won’t be any outrageous comments.

00:42

I just absorbed a lot of professional research reports

00:45

including some opinions from people in the industry,

00:46

and picked out some that I think are more reasonable

00:48

and share it with you

00:50

It’s just my opinion.

00:52

What will you be looking at in this video?

00:53

I think looking at the data to look at the current situation

00:55

is actually just one aspect.

00:56

Let’s also take a look

00:57

at what kind perspective would an

00:58

average professional take

00:59

when they analyse

01:00

a country's macroeconomic

01:01

and how would they think

01:02

I think this

01:03

should be more helpful to everyone.

01:04

At the end, I will also briefly summarize

01:06

how I personally

01:07

look at a country's economy.

01:08

My methodology

01:09

includes some points that may be easy to trip up.

01:11

How about I give you

01:13

a little peek at my

01:14

knowledge tree.

01:14

This is sincere enough.

01:16

Those of you who are interested can save this video/

01:21

We know that in 2022

01:22

the global economic theme is crisis

01:24

Inflation, interest rate hike,

01:26

energy crisis, etc.

01:27

Then the theme of the global economy in 2023

01:29

In sum is

01:30

Recovery

01:31

Inflation, energy crisis

01:32

have been brought under control

01:33

and interest rate hike have basically come to an end.

01:35

Although each country

01:36

has some hard-to-learn lessons about the economy

01:37

overall it is better than expected.

01:39

In particular, the economies of the United States and India

01:41

are both

01:42

stronger than expected.

01:44

This is like

01:45

in 2022,

01:46

the global economy is suffering from a serious disease.

01:48

On the one hand, the body is very weak

01:49

and on the other hand

01:50

it has to fight this disease,

01:51

so it has a fever , right?

01:52

Countries are raising interest rates, killing the enemy by a thousand, and damaging themselves by 800

01:54

no matter what it is

01:55

inflation has to be suppressed first.

01:56

By 2023,

01:58

it seems that the recovery

01:59

is better than expected

02:00

head no longer hurts,

02:01

appetite has increased,

02:02

and can even walk two steps

02:03

The theme of 2024 is

02:05

Normalisation

02:07

It's like after this person gets sick,

02:08

can he return to

02:09

a normal life

02:11

without leaving any root causes/

02:12

Can he resume

02:13

consumption and investment,

02:14

control inflation, and slowly start to cut interest rates

02:16

In fact, this is what many countries call

02:18

"soft landing"

02:19

to avoid backward recession.

02:21

This is the growth situation of

02:22

some of the world's larger economies that

02:24

I compiled in 2023.

02:25

Some countries' fourth quarter data has not been released,

02:27

so I used an expected one.

02:28

Anyway, it doesn't vary much.

02:29

You can take a look at it

02:30

I picked the ones with a GDP of more than trillion,

02:32

which are the big ones.

02:33

The fastest growing

02:34

is India at 7.3%,

02:36

the second is China at 5.2%

02:37

and the last two are Saudi Arabia and Germany .

02:39

Saudi is easier to understand

02:41

after all, it is affected by oil.

02:42

To be honest, they have indeed

02:43

won a lot in 2022

02:44

But Germany? We did not expect that

02:46

2023 will be so difficult for them

02:47

But there is an interesting thing.

02:49

News came out two days ago

02:50

that Japan’s economic data for the

02:51

fourth quarter of 2023 came out

02:52

significantly lower than anticipated

02:53

The title of the third largest country in the world

02:54

is snatched away by Germany

02:56

Here comes the problem

02:57

didn't I mention Germany was second

02:59

to last after Saudi Arabia?

03:00

How come it has surpassed Japan?

03:03

The content of this news

03:04

is definitely correct,

03:05

but the algorithm

03:06

is different.

03:06

It actually has an exchange rate issue.

03:08

The general economic growth rate

03:09

is actually calculated using the national currency

03:10

after adjusting for inflation

03:12

The GDP value

03:13

we mentioned

03:14

when we said Germany surpassed Japan

03:15

is actually a nominal GDP that is

03:17

converted into U.S. dollars

03:18

based on the exchange rate of that year.

03:20

So why did Japan

03:20

lose the third place to Germany?

03:22

Actually, the main fault is the exchange rate.

03:23

Japan's real GDP

03:24

has actually increased in the past 2 years

03:26

If calculated using Japanese Yen it has increased

03:27

but the Japanese yen has depreciated very much,

03:29

so after the nominal GDP was converted into US dollars,

03:31

it plummeted and was overtaken by Germany.

03:32

So let me tell you

03:33

do you know how Japan can regain

03:35

the title of the third largest economy in the world?

03:37

They should use their foreign exchange reserves

03:39

to buy up the yen,

03:40

so that they can save the position.

03:42

So let me tell you,

03:42

the headlines are sometimes very confusing.

03:44

At first glance when you hear

03:45

Germany is going to surpass Japan

03:46

and become the third largest economy

03:48

you'd feel that Germany is very strong

03:49

and Japan is very weak, right?

03:50

But in fact,

03:51

Japan is not as bad as insinuated,

03:53

and Germany is not that strong.

03:54

Actually

03:55

neither of them can stay third for too long

03:59

Well, I just

04:00

served you an appetiser

04:02

Are you more curious about

04:03

why Germany is so sluggish,

04:04

why is the United States and India so strong?

04:06

What’s wrong with Japan?

04:07

Don’t worry, let’s go through it slowly.

04:09

First, let’s take a look at Japan.

04:13

In 2023

04:13

Japan's GDP increased by 1.9%

04:15

For

04:15

a country that has been stuck in economic stagnation for a long time

04:17

they are actually doing pretty well

04:18

But it has recently experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth and

04:20

has fallen into a theoretical recession.

04:21

Inflation

04:21

has finally ended the shadow of the previous thirty years

04:23

of fighting against deflation.

04:25

remained at 3%

04:26

Unemployment rate

04:27

which is still Japan's consistent style

04:28

stable as an old dog, full employment

04:30

and its stock market is unusually strong

04:31

The exchange rate is very weak,

04:33

and the central bank is still considering exiting

04:34

a set of bizarre monetary policy tactics

04:36

that it has been using for more than a decade .

04:38

If I were to use one word

04:39

to describe Japan's economy for the past two years,

04:41

just one word

04:42

Awkward

04:44

The inflation that they have been begging

04:45

for years has finally come,

04:45

but when it's here they don't like it

04:46

04:47

The central bank's interest rate policy

04:48

is neither liberalizing nor restrictive.

04:50

04:50

The exchange rate has fallen sharply.

04:51

The Japanese economy is a love-hate relationship

04:52

04:53

Food is facing inflation

04:54

but wages are not rising

04:55

04:56

The real economy is average

04:56

but the stock market is rising

04:58

05:00

Does it make your head hurt to listen to it?

05:02

Let me tell you that

05:02

Japan can be said to be the most complex and chaotic

05:04

amongst all these economic bodies

05:05

Let’s start with its inflation.

05:09

We know that

05:10

Japan’s inflation rate

05:11

has been hovering at zero level

05:12

for the past thirty years

05:13

and fighting against deflation

05:15

Japan's inflation target

05:16

has always been 2%,

05:17

but it can't get it.

05:18

So I tell you,

05:18

the Bank of Japan

05:19

is the most desperate central bank in the world.

05:21

It has used all kinds of easing policies.

05:23

I guess in the past two decades

05:24

if the world awards a

05:25

Central Bank Innovation Pioneer Award

05:27

it must go to the Bank of Japan.

05:28

Note that

05:28

this is a satire, not a compliment.

05:32

You see, they first invented quantitative easing

05:34

which can be said

05:35

to be a

05:36

very, very radical monetary policy in the early 2000s

05:38

Now everyone may feel

05:39

that it is a standard configuration.

05:39

Later, the Bank of Japan felt that it was not enough,

05:41

so it came up with two weird tricks.

05:43

One is negative interest rates

05:44

and the other is yield curve control.

05:46

Those who are not familiar with it may feel that

05:47

it is deep and profound

05:49

the execution definitely is.

05:50

But looking at the underlying logic,

05:52

it is actually quite simple

05:53

Negative interest rates are to lower short-term interest rates.

05:55

The main purpose is to allow banks and financial institutions to

05:57

borrow money at almost zero cost.

05:59

Yield curve control .

06:00

to put it bluntly, it is to lower long-term interest rates.

06:02

This is linked

06:03

to the financing of our housing loan

06:04

companies financing, etc.

06:05

The borrowing costs for

06:06

almost all players

06:07

in the economy is almost zero

06:09

in order to increase the velocity of money circulation

06:10

and drive the economy

06:11

So if you compare

06:12

the yield curves of various countries,

06:14

you may find it very funny.

06:15

If you look at the interest rates of European and American central banks

06:17

it's like a roller coaster

06:18

but Japan

06:19

has been lying there.

06:21

Same goes with long-term interest rates.

06:22

So some people joke that

06:23

Japan has even flattened the yield curve

06:26

What has happened in recent years?

06:28

The United States has raised interest rates

06:29

so the rate increases

06:30

will cause Yet to

06:31

start depreciate against the US dollar

06:33

So you see, in 2022

06:34

inflation happened globally

06:36

and energy crisis,

06:37

and things priced in US dollars will start to skyrocket.

06:39

At this time, the yen depreciate

06:40

For Japan,

06:41

it's more expensive for them to buy imported goods

06:42

especially energy and petroleum.

06:44

This makes

06:44

the prices of goods that have

06:46

remained unchanged for 30 years,

06:48

ushered in inflation.

06:49

Some people joked about

06:50

the inflation that Japan has been dreaming of

06:51

for more than 30 years

06:52

was achieved by

06:54

Putin

06:57

But what's the problem?

06:58

Do you think this inflation

07:00

is a good thing for Japan?

07:01

That’s obviously not

07:02

The inflation that

07:03

Japan get with great difficulty is called

07:05

imported inflation.

07:07

It is not inflation based on increase in demand

07:09

that causes price to increase

07:10

It's suddenly one day

07:12

everything becomes expensive

07:13

and I couldn’t afford it anymore

07:13

Domestic prices have to rise accordingly

07:15

This sounds like a bad thing, right?

07:19

Look at the items that have

07:20

seen the biggest increase in price.

07:21

Food and commodity prices have been rising.

07:23

Food inflation has exceeded 8%

07:25

but the increase in our has been very limited.

07:27

From the actual purchasing power,

07:29

the wages may have actually declined.

07:31

things are expensive and wages do not increase

07:32

what will happen?

07:33

No more spending

07:34

money, consumption has declined

07:36

So Japan’s consumption

07:37

has never returned to

07:38

the level before the pandemic.

07:39

This is in sharp contrast to the United States.

07:42

We will talk about the United States in a moment.

07:43

Consumption can be said

07:44

to be the engine of a country’s economy

07:46

Assuming consumption picks up the pace,

07:47

it's okay if there's a little problem

07:49

here and there

07:50

but if consumption slumps,

07:51

it will be very troublesome.

07:52

In fact, this time global inflation may be

07:54

a major fundamental problem faced by

07:55

all countries except the United States.

07:57

Actually, it is the inability to afford consumption.

08:00

But

08:01

if you look at this imported inflation

08:02

it may seems like it is completely useless,

08:04

but for Japan,

08:05

everyone seems to be gradually starting to realize

08:07

that it is not entirely a bad thing

08:09

Although it suppresses consumption and suppresses the economy

08:11

it has at least achieved one thing

08:12

It has made Japanese people

08:13

slowly begin to realize

08:15

there is really such a thing as inflation.

08:16

This has been very difficult

08:18

in the past thirty years.

08:20

Over such a long time,

08:21

everyone has gradually formed a

08:22

deep-rooted concept

08:23

This thing

08:24

if it's 100 yen then it is 100 yen

08:26

it won't change

08:27

Wages will also not increase

08:28

You can put your money

08:28

in the bank or in a drawer

08:30

it's basically the same

08:30

as the interest rate is zero.

08:32

But for the past two years,

08:33

people's ideas

08:33

have slowly begun to change.

08:35

Japanese people really feel that

08:37

the price of this thing will go up.

08:38

If I don’t buy it today

08:40

Next year

08:40

it might really become more expensive

08:41

So I’d better do my best

08:43

it’s time to consume.

08:44

Everyone begins to accept inflation and adapt to inflation.

08:46

The velocity of currency circulation begins to accelerate

08:49

this demand was really

08:50

stimulated a little bit

08:54

Anyway, in general,

08:55

the imported inflation

08:56

that Japan is facing

08:57

does seem

08:58

to have inhibited economic consumption.

09:00

But what are its benefits?

09:01

It is that it finally gives the Japanese people

09:02

inflation expectations

09:04

which is actually very difficult.

09:08

Next

09:09

let’s talk about the Bank of Japan.

09:11

What should they do?

09:12

At this time, the Bank of Japan

09:13

is actually facing a dilemma.

09:15

If it does not raise interest

09:16

the interest rate gap between the Euro and the US dollar is so big

09:18

It is easy for the yen to continue to depreciate.

09:19

You see, in the past two years,

09:20

Japan has actually had a large amount of

09:21

private sector capital flowing overseas.

09:23

If this continues

09:24

it will definitely have

09:25

a great negative impact on the economy.

09:26

And what if inflation suddenly spikes

09:28

and not under control

09:29

it will change from deflation to high inflation.

09:30

At that time,

09:31

the central bank will make an emergency tightening and raise interest rates.