This Could Actually Ruin The Solar Eclipse…

Ryan Hall, Y'all
29 Mar 202408:09


TLDRThe 2024 total solar eclipse in North America is a once-in-a-lifetime event with millions expected to witness it. However, weather conditions may affect the view, with cloud cover potentially obstructing the sun. The video discusses the challenges of predicting clear skies along the path of totality, considering climatology and forecast models. It highlights the likelihood of cloudiness in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, while areas like Dallas may fare better. A preliminary cloud cover forecast is provided, with recommendations to stay updated as the event nears.


  • 🌍 A total solar eclipse in 2024 is a significant event in North America with millions planning to witness it in person.
  • 🌗 The path of totality will stretch from Texas to Maine, providing a wider area for viewers to experience the eclipse.
  • ☁️ Weather conditions, particularly cloud cover, could impact the visibility of the eclipse, with a single cloud potentially blocking the view.
  • 🌞 The sun's increased activity during this period could make the corona appear more fascinating, enhancing the eclipse's visual appeal.
  • 🌧️ Climatological data suggests that spring in the US often brings cloud cover and rain, which could affect eclipse viewing conditions.
  • 📅 The forecast for the eclipse on April 8th is challenging due to the variability of weather patterns and the current distance from the event.
  • 🌪️ Early forecasts indicate a potential for severe weather outbreaks around the time of the eclipse, influencing the overall weather conditions.
  • 🔮 Both GFS and Euro models suggest a likelihood of cloud cover during the eclipse, but with differences in the extent of the impact.
  • 🌈 Despite the challenges in forecasting, the presenter provides a preliminary cloud cover forecast for the eclipse, identifying areas with high, medium, and low probabilities of clear skies.
  • 🚀 The presenter plans to update the forecast as the event nears, offering more refined information on where the best viewing conditions might be found.

Q & A

  • What is the significance of the total solar eclipse of 2024 in North America?

    -The total solar eclipse of 2024 is significant because it offers a wider path of totality than usual, allowing more people the chance to experience it. Additionally, the eclipse will last longer than usual, and the sun is in a period of increased activity, making the corona appear more fascinating.

  • Why is predicting clear skies for the solar eclipse challenging?

    -Predicting clear skies for the solar eclipse is challenging because it involves forecasting weather over a large area that spans across a dozen states, from Texas to Maine. Furthermore, the prediction is made 11 days in advance, making it difficult to accurately forecast cloud cover.

  • How does climatology help in predicting the weather for the solar eclipse?

    -Climatology helps by providing historical weather patterns for April 8th in the eclipse's path, offering insights into typical conditions such as the likelihood of cloud cover and rain due to the mixing of warm and cool air during spring.

  • What makes the weather forecast for the 2024 eclipse potentially more challenging than the 2017 eclipse?

    -The forecast for the 2024 eclipse is potentially more challenging because it occurs in spring, a season known for its mix of warm and cool air leading to more cloud cover and rain, unlike the dry summer pattern during the 2017 eclipse.

  • Why is the Northeast and Ohio Valley mentioned specifically regarding cloud cover?

    -The Northeast and Ohio Valley are mentioned specifically because climatological data and satellite images from the last 50 years show these areas typically have expansive cloud cover around the time of the eclipse, making them more likely to experience overcast skies.

  • How do forecast models contribute to the solar eclipse weather prediction?

    -Forecast models, like the GFS and European model, provide detailed predictions on weather patterns leading up to April 8th. They help identify potential storm systems and cloud cover that could affect visibility during the eclipse.

  • What role does the sponsor,, play in the context of the video? is presented as the video's sponsor, promoting an interactive platform for learning math, data science, and computer science. It aligns with the video's educational theme by encouraging viewers to engage with learning materials in a fun and interactive way.

  • What is the preliminary cloud cover forecast for the 2024 solar eclipse?

    -The preliminary forecast indicates areas in red with the highest probability of overcast skies, particularly further north. Yellow zones represent a toss-up with a slightly better chance of visibility, and green zones are where clear skies are most likely, offering a good chance of experiencing totality.

  • Why is the video's forecast considered 'too early' and subject to change?

    -The forecast is considered 'too early' and subject to change because it is made well in advance of the eclipse date. Weather patterns can vary significantly in the days leading up to the event, making early predictions less reliable.

  • What additional resource does the video creator plan to provide as the eclipse date approaches?

    -The video creator plans to post another video with more detailed weather predictions, including where it will be cloudy and sunny, on their XTRA channel two to three days before the eclipse, to provide updated information for viewers planning to observe the eclipse.



🌍 Anticipating the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse

This paragraph introduces the upcoming total solar eclipse of 2024, emphasizing its rarity and the excitement surrounding the event. It highlights the challenges of witnessing the eclipse due to potential cloud cover and discusses the importance of understanding weather patterns for optimal viewing. The speaker also mentions the broader path of totality and the increased duration of totality for this particular eclipse. Additionally, the paragraph sets the stage for a discussion on climatology and its role in predicting weather conditions for the eclipse day.


🌦️ Weather Patterns and Climatological Forecast

The second paragraph delves into the specifics of weather forecasting for the 2024 total solar eclipse. It discusses the challenges of predicting weather patterns 11 days in advance and the large forecast area that the eclipse will cross. The speaker references historical weather data and climatological trends, noting that spring in the US often brings variable weather, which could increase the likelihood of cloud cover during the eclipse. The paragraph also compares the upcoming eclipse's weather prospects to the 2017 eclipse, which had more favorable viewing conditions. The speaker then transitions into discussing the importance of using forecast models to better understand and prepare for the weather on April 8th.



💡Total Solar Eclipse

A total solar eclipse is a celestial event where the moon passes between the Earth and the sun, completely blocking the sun's light for a brief period. In the context of the video, the total solar eclipse of 2024 is highlighted as a significant, awe-inspiring event expected to cross over a dozen states from Texas to Maine. The narrator emphasizes its rarity and the unique opportunity it presents for millions to witness something extraordinary. This eclipse is noted for its wider path of totality and longer duration, enhancing its visibility and appeal.

💡Path of Totality

The path of totality refers to the specific area on Earth's surface where the total solar eclipse is visible. Within this path, observers can experience the full phase of the eclipse, including the complete coverage of the sun by the moon. The video mentions traveling to the path of totality as essential for experiencing the eclipse in its full glory but also warns about the potential of cloud cover obstructing the view. The 2024 eclipse's path of totality is described as wide, theoretically allowing more people the chance to witness the event.

💡Cloud Cover

Cloud cover is a critical concern in the video, referring to the covering of the sky by clouds, which can obstruct the view of the solar eclipse. The narrator aims to predict areas of clear skies versus those likely to be obscured by clouds on the day of the eclipse, underscoring the challenge of forecasting specific weather conditions such as cloud cover 11 days in advance. The discussion of cloud cover is central to planning where to view the eclipse, as even a small cloud can prevent the observation of this astronomical phenomenon.


Climatology is the study of climate, analyzed as weather conditions averaged over a period of time. The video uses climatology to assess historical weather patterns on April 8th in previous years across the eclipse's path. This historical data serves as a baseline to forecast potential weather conditions for the 2024 eclipse. By examining past climatic trends, such as prevalent cloudiness during early April in certain regions, the narrator tries to predict which areas might offer the best chances for clear skies.

💡Forecast Models

Forecast models are sophisticated tools used to predict weather conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover, based on mathematical simulations of the Earth's atmosphere. The video discusses using these models to anticipate weather patterns leading up to and on the day of the eclipse. The narrator reviews different forecast models, like the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro (European model), to predict which areas might have clear skies, emphasizing the inherent uncertainties in weather forecasting.

💡GFS (Global Forecast System)

The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather prediction model mentioned in the video. It is used to forecast atmospheric conditions, including storms and cloud cover, across the globe. The narrator refers to the GFS to analyze the weather patterns expected around the time of the eclipse, highlighting its role in attempting to identify areas that might be free of cloud cover. The GFS's predictions, including the likelihood of a large storm system affecting the eclipse's visibility, are crucial for planning where to observe the event.


The corona is the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere, visible only during a total solar eclipse. It appears as a pearly white crown surrounding the dark silhouette of the moon. The video points out that the sun is currently in a period of increased activity, which should make the corona especially fascinating to observe during the 2024 eclipse. This detail enhances the appeal of viewing the eclipse, as the corona's appearance can vary significantly with solar activity.

💡Severe Weather

Severe weather refers to any dangerous meteorological phenomena with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. The video highlights an enhanced and slight risk of severe weather, including potential widespread severe weather outbreaks, as part of the forecast leading up to the eclipse. This information is relevant both for safety considerations and for understanding the atmospheric conditions that might impact visibility during the eclipse.

💡Interactive Learning

Interactive learning, as mentioned in the video through the promotion of, emphasizes engaging, hands-on methods for education, particularly in fields like math, data science, and computer science. The narrator champions interactive learning as an effective way to understand complex topics, including those relevant to weather forecasting and eclipse planning. This approach is contrasted with passive learning, highlighting its effectiveness in retaining information and understanding complex systems.


Visibility in the context of the video pertains to the clarity and conditions necessary to observe the solar eclipse without obstruction. Factors affecting visibility include cloud cover, weather patterns, and geographic location relative to the path of totality. The narrator's goal is to predict where visibility will be optimal for viewing the eclipse, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right location to experience this astronomical event fully.


A once-in-a-lifetime total solar eclipse event is set to occur in North America in 2024, attracting millions of viewers.

The total solar eclipse of 2024 will be breathtaking and offers a unique opportunity for people to witness it in person.

Weather conditions, particularly cloud cover, could significantly impact the viewing experience of the eclipse.

The path of totality for the 2024 eclipse will stretch from Texas to Maine, crossing over a dozen states.

Forecasting weather systems and cloud cover for the eclipse is challenging due to the large area and the time frame.

Climatology data suggests that spring in the US often involves warm and cool air masses causing cloud cover and rain, potentially impacting the eclipse view.

The 2017 total solar eclipse in August had mostly clear skies due to the dry summer pattern.

Weather patterns vary significantly year to year, so past climatology may not be a reliable indicator for the 2024 eclipse.

Forecast models, such as the GFS, can provide insights into potential weather conditions leading up to the eclipse date.

The GFS model indicates a large storm system may affect the central US, impacting the potential for clear skies during the eclipse.

The Euro model, while less detailed at this distance from the event, also suggests a storm system heading for the central US.

A preliminary cloud cover forecast for the 2024 total solar eclipse has been provided, with areas of high probability of overcast skies marked in red.

Yellow-shaded areas in the forecast represent a toss-up, with a slightly better chance of seeing the eclipse.

Green-shaded areas indicate the highest confidence for clear skies and the best chance to experience the eclipse.

The forecast is subject to change as the event approaches, and updates will be provided closer to the date.

The video content is designed to be fun, interactive, and educational, aiming to prepare viewers for the eclipse and understand the factors affecting it.

The video sponsor,, is highlighted as an excellent platform for interactive learning in math, data science, and computer science.



A once-in-a-lifetime event is about  to take place in North America, 


and millions of people plan on making the quest  to go see it in person. The total solar eclipse  


of 2024 is going to be breathtaking, and I believe  everyone should try and go see it. But just simply  


traveling to the path of totality might not be  enough. One little cloud could block your view  


of the sun, causing you to miss the whole thing.  In this video, I'm going to try to nail down where  


the skies are going to be clear during the solar  eclipse and where they will likely be blocked  


by clouds. Now, this is no easy task. The total  solar eclipse will cross over a dozen states as  


it traverses from Texas to Maine on the afternoon  of April 8th. That's a big forecast area. And  


as of making this video, we are still 11 days  away from April 8th. Forecasting large weather  


systems and just ballpark high temperatures is  very difficult 11 days out, let alone trying  


to nail down where clouds are going to be. But  millions of people will be traveling to try and  


experience this very rare eclipse. You see, this  one's going to be special because it has a wider  


path of totality than usual, which theoretically  should mean that more people can get to see it.  


Totality during this eclipse is also going to last  longer than usual, and the sun is currently in a  


period of increased activity, so the corona  should look extra fascinating. So we have to  


start giving the weather and cloud cover that  day some serious thought here. And to do that,  


we're going to start this forecast off by looking  at climatology. Basically, we need to know what  


April 8th has looked like during previous years  in this part of the country to try to come up  


with some idea of what this year could be like.  And the first thing I have to mention here is  


that it's spring. And the thing about spring  in the US is there's lots of warm and cool air  


fighting with each other right over the states.  As winter air exits and spring air emerges, 


these battles are notorious for causing cloud  cover and rain. So it's already much more likely  


that we're going to see greater cloud coverage  during this eclipse than we did during the last  


one. The most recent total solar eclipse here  in the U.S. was back in 2017 and it happened  


in August. The skies were mostly clear across the  entire path of totality thanks to the dry summer  


pattern in place. I went to this eclipse myself  and I remember thinking about how lucky we were  


that there was not a single cloud in the sky to  block our view. I don't really think we're going  


to get so lucky this time. I mean, just take  a look at this animation from the University  


of Wisconsin compiling satellite images over the  last 50 years from the same time that our eclipse  


will occur. Almost all of these show expansive  cloud cover right over the path of totality,  


especially in the Northeast and Ohio  Valley and around the Great Lakes. Over  


the past 60 to 70 years, it's usually more  cloudy than not in places like Missouri, 


Ohio and New York in early April. And then  further south and west, you've got places like  


Dallas and southwest Texas that are more likely  to be sunny. It's very important to note that  


just because climatology says that it's pretty  likely that a lot of the path of totality will  


be covered with clouds on April 8th doesn't  mean that it's set in stone. Weather patterns  


vary wildly year to year and month to month and  day to day. Maybe this year we're gonna be in  


a clearer pattern than years past. In order to  figure that out, we have to take a look at some  


forecast models. These are going to help us learn  exactly what's going to happen as we approach  


April 8th so we know where to go to experience  the solar eclipse. And speaking of learning,  


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back. Taking a look at the GFS, things look pretty  active from now all the way up until April 8th. In  


fact, on April 1st and April 2nd, there's already  an enhanced and a slight risk of severe weather  


for those days as I'm filming this. It looks like  there's going to be a large storm system that  


causes a widespread severe weather outbreak during  this time period. And just a side note here,  


if you live in any of these places and this event  hasn't happened yet as you're watching this video, 


you should definitely pay attention to the  weather. This looks like a big April severe  


weather outbreak. And this is the kind of  pattern that we should expect to be in in  


April. It's storm season. So another storm is  probably going to come in right after that one. 


And once again, taking a look at the GFS here,  you can see exactly how the pattern unfolds as  


we go through the rest of next week. Where a big  trough is expected to move in from the West. This  


means that pretty much all of the path of totality  would have the chance of being cloudy except for  


maybe this little sliver of the Northeast. And  this is really interesting because that's where  


climatology says it should be most cloudy. The  solution on the GFS is very probable though. If  


we actually do get a storm system setting up in  the central US like this, there's a good chance  


out in front of it is going to be very warm and  nice and mostly clear of clouds, especially south  


of the warm front. This is a pretty big weather  system and the signal for it has been consistent,  


so I'm starting to have some confidence that  this might be the case here. But of course,  


that's just one run of one model. What  does the Euro model say? Unfortunately,  


this is still so far away that the European model  doesn't even have predictive images that far out.  


But as you can see on the 7th, that trough we saw  in the GFS is still there. And it looks like it's  


heading right for the central US, bringing clouds  and rain right along with it. The Euro does seem a  


little bit less bullish than the GFS as far as the  overall impact of the storm goes. But remember,  


all it's going to take is one cloud to block your  view. The intensity of the rainfall coming out  


of that cloud really doesn't matter. So to be  honest, looking at all these forecast models,  


it doesn't really paint a much brighter picture  than just looking at climatology. But once again,  


I have to emphasize that we are still very distant  from this event and the forecast is going to  


change. But with all that being said, here's my  official preliminary 2024 total solar eclipse  


cloud cover forecast. All of these areas shaded in  red have the highest probability of experiencing  


overcast skies during the solar eclipse. The  farther north you go, the more confident I am  


in this prediction, especially here in the states.  Now, take a look at these areas shaded in yellow.  


These places are going to be in what I call a  toss-up. There is a slightly better chance of  


actually being able to see the eclipse if you're  in the yellow zone. Some of these places will be  


cloudy, some of them will get peaks of sunshine,  and some Some of them might just be mostly clear.  


We're going to know more once we get closer and  the green is where I'm most confident that we're  


going to have clear skies. These are the only  areas where I think there's going to be more sky  


visible than cloud cover and you've got a pretty  good chance of actually seeing and experiencing  


totality there. It's not 100% but it's better  than the yellow and the red areas. So there you  


have it my preliminary and honestly too early 2024  cloud covered total solar eclipse forecast. This  


is gonna change and once we get within two to  three days of the event I'm gonna post another  


video on my XTRA channel with the fine details  of where it's gonna be cloudy and where it's  


gonna be sunny. Make sure you go subscribe to that  channel if you haven't already and slap that like  


button stay tuned to the forecast and I'll see  You under the shadow of the moon. Goodbye Whoop!