Bloomberg Markets: Asia 03/12/2024

Bloomberg Television
11 Mar 202447:12

Summary

TLDR亚洲股市因投资者等待美国通胀数据而谨慎交易,该数据可能影响美联储的下一步行动。日本央行行长认为日本经济正在缓慢复苏,市场预期四月加息。印度最大的通胀数据即将发布,市场关注其对央行政策的影响。同时,讨论了美国经济衰退的风险,以及对美元强势的预期。

Takeaways

  • 🌐 亚洲股市跟随华尔街谨慎交易,投资者等待美国通胀数据,这可能影响美联储的下一步行动。
  • 🇯🇵 日本银行行长田宇治郎认为日本经济正在缓慢复苏,市场普遍预期4月将加息。
  • 📉 MSCI亚太指数下跌0.3%,日经225指数连续六天下跌,受日元走强影响。
  • 🇨🇳 中国股市CSI 300指数下跌0.2%,市场对中国房地产市场的担忧以及穆迪将人民币评级下调至垃圾级。
  • 💡 分析师预测美国未来一年的软着陆可能性为50%,而最坏的情况可能是滞胀。
  • 📈 尽管市场预期美联储今年将降息,但具体时机仍不确定,周二即将发布的美国CPI数据至关重要。
  • 🗣️ 专家认为,即使美联储在今年降息,也不一定意味着降息周期的开始。
  • 🇮🇳 印度即将发布通胀数据,预计为5.1%,高于央行的4%目标。
  • 🇮🇳 印度市场监管机构表示,愿意修改共同基金投资小盘股的规则,以防止市场过热。
  • 🇯🇵 日本央行可能在3月退出负利率政策,但市场对此持谨慎态度。
  • 🌐 全球大宗商品市场受到中国需求放缓的影响,特别是铁矿石价格大幅下跌。

Q & A

  • 亚洲股市为何跟随华尔街谨慎交易?

    -亚洲股市跟随华尔街谨慎交易,因为投资者正在等待美国通胀数据的发布,这些数据可能会影响美联储的下一步行动。

  • 日本央行行长Kazuo Data对日本经济有何看法?

    -日本央行行长Kazuo Data认为日本经济正在缓慢复苏。

  • 市场对印度即将发布的通胀数据有何预期?

    -市场预期印度即将发布的通胀数据将是其最大的通胀数据,这将在当天晚些时候公布。

  • 目前亚洲股市的表现如何?

    -亚洲股市表现谨慎,投资者持观望态度,等待关键的CPI数据发布。

  • 日本央行可能在何时退出负利率政策?

    -市场预计日本央行可能在4月份退出负利率政策。

  • 中国300 CSI指数的表现如何?

    -中国300 CSI指数目前处于负值区域,下跌约2/10的1%。

  • 穆迪为何将中国的评级降至垃圾级?

    -穆迪将中国的评级降至垃圾级,是对中国经济和政策不确定性的反应,尤其是考虑到中国房地产市场的疲软表现和人民币的贬值压力。

  • 日元近期的表现如何?

    -日元近期表现强劲,超过了其他所有G10货币,并且预计这种涨势将以稳定的步伐继续。

  • 美国银行CEO Jamie Dimon对美国经济有何看法?

    -美国银行CEO Jamie Dimon警告称,美国经济衰退的可能性尚未排除,他认为未来一两年内软着陆的机会只有市场的一半预期。

  • Omar Slim对美国经济的看法是什么?

    -Omar Slim认为,尽管迄今为止的数据相当有韧性,但衰退的风险比市场预期的要高,特别是如果考虑到货币政策的顺序和可能的利率调整。

  • 印度市场监管机构对共同基金投资小盘股的规则有何调整?

    -印度市场监管机构表示,愿意修订共同基金投资小盘股的规则,这是监管机构对经济和市场某些部分显示过热迹象的担忧的一部分。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 亚洲股市跟随华尔街谨慎交易,等待美国通胀数据

亚洲股市在华尔街的影响下谨慎交易,投资者等待美国即将发布的通胀数据,这可能会影响美联储的下一步行动。日本央行行长认为日本经济正在缓慢恢复,而市场观察家们普遍预期四月份将会有加息。同时,市场也在关注印度即将发布的通胀数据。在市场方面,投资者持观望态度,等待关键的CPI数据发布。此外,日经225指数因日元走强而连续六日下跌。

05:03

💵 美元强势持续,市场关注日本央行政策动向

市场预期美元将继续表现强劲,特别是与欧洲和一些新兴市场,尤其是中国相比。尽管市场可能会有短暂的喘息,但美元并未出现大幅走弱的迹象。美元的强势可能会给一些边际主权国家带来压力。此外,市场也在关注日本央行的政策动向,预计日本央行将逐步退出负利率政策,但不会立即采取行动。

10:06

🏙️ 中国经济压力增大,穆迪下调评级引发关注

中国经济面临下行压力,穆迪将中国的信用评级下调至垃圾级,这对正在试探性进入市场的外国投资者来说是一个不利的消息。中国房地产市场继续受到政策支持的限制,市场预期中国经济增长存在下行风险,尤其是房地产行业和人民币汇率。

15:07

📉 商品市场受中国经济影响,铁矿石价格大跌

中国经济的放缓对商品市场产生了影响,特别是铁矿石价格因需求预期下降而大幅下跌。中国国内的库存水平创一年来新高,而中国的建筑行业因对房地产市场的打压而表现疲软。此外,油价在多重因素的影响下保持稳定,等待美国CPI数据的发布。

20:08

🇮🇳 印度市场监管机构对小盘股投资规则进行修订

印度市场监管机构表示,愿意修订共同基金投资小盘股的规则。这是在监管机构对经济和市场某些部分显示出过热迹象的担忧中进行的。印度的银行业监管机构和市场监管机构采取了协调行动,包括对金融科技公司和影子银行的监管,以及对管理小盘股的共同基金的警告。

25:09

📈 印度央行可能不会在今年降息,经济增长预期保持强劲

印度的CPI预计将保持在5.1%,远高于4%的目标水平。尽管如此,印度央行可能不会在今年降息,而是会等待通胀进一步下降。印度经济增长预期保持强劲,政府提高了增长预测,印度储备银行也认为8%的增长是可能的。然而,从中期角度来看,可持续的增长速度更可能接近7%。

30:09

🌍 全球市场关注美国CPI数据,大宗商品价格波动

全球市场正在等待美国CPI数据的发布,这可能会影响美联储的货币政策走向。与此同时,由于中国经济放缓,大宗商品价格出现波动,特别是铁矿石价格大幅下跌。此外,中国房地产市场的动态也受到市场关注,尽管信用评级被下调,但相关股票价格有所上涨。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡亚洲股市

亚洲股市指的是亚洲各个国家和地区的股票交易市场,包括但不限于中国的上证综指、深证成指,日本的日经225指数等。在视频中,亚洲股市的表现受到美国通胀数据预期的影响,因为这些数据可能会影响美联储的下一步货币政策。

💡美联储

美联储,全称美国联邦储备系统,是美国的中央银行,负责制定和执行货币政策,包括调整联邦基金利率等。美联储的政策决定对全球金融市场有着深远的影响。

💡通胀数据

通胀数据是指衡量一国货币购买力下降速度的宏观经济指标,通常通过消费者价格指数(CPI)或生产者价格指数(PPI)来衡量。通胀数据的高低直接影响到中央银行的货币政策,如利率调整。

💡日经225指数

日经225指数是日本东京证券交易所上市的225家主要公司的股价加权平均指数,是衡量日本股市整体表现的重要指标。

💡日元

日元是日本的官方货币,其汇率波动对日本经济和全球金融市场都有重要影响。日元的走强通常会影响日本的出口竞争力,而日元的走弱则可能提升出口企业的盈利能力。

💡中国房地产市场

中国房地产市场指的是中国大陆地区房屋和土地的买卖、租赁等交易活动,以及与之相关的开发、投资、融资等经济行为。中国的房地产市场对全球经济有着重要影响,特别是在钢铁、水泥等大宗商品需求方面。

💡货币政策

货币政策是指由中央银行或货币当局制定和实施的,影响一个国家或货币区域货币供应量和利率水平的政策,旨在实现宏观经济目标,如控制通胀、促进经济增长等。

💡风险管理

风险管理是指识别、评估和优先处理潜在风险,以减少、监控和控制风险发生可能性和影响的系统过程。在金融市场中,风险管理对于投资者和金融机构来说至关重要,可以帮助他们保护资本免受不利市场变动的影响。

💡经济衰退

经济衰退是指一国或地区经济活动普遍放缓,通常表现为生产下降、就业减少、收入减少和消费支出减少。经济衰退可能会导致企业破产和失业率上升。

💡投资级债券

投资级债券是指信用评级较高的债券,通常意味着较低的违约风险。投资者认为这些债券是相对安全的投资,因为发行者有较强的偿债能力和较低的信用风险。

Highlights

亚洲股市跟随华尔街谨慎交易,投资者等待美国通胀数据,这可能影响美联储的下一步行动。

日本央行行长田东久看到日本经济缓慢复苏,多数BOJ观察家预期4月加息。

市场对即将发布的印度最大通胀数据感到紧张,我们很快将从印度联合银行听到消息。

市场交易谨慎,投资者观望,等待关键的CPI数据发布。

摩根大通CEO警告称,美国经济衰退尚未排除,世界可能以70%至80%的概率定价。

Omar Slim认为,即使迄今为止的数据相当有韧性,经济衰退的风险也高于市场预期。

Slim指出,美联储可能在降息前会更加谨慎,而且这些降息需要被视为调整性降息,而不是降息周期的开始。

市场需要看到通胀率连续下降,特别是美国国债收益率才能停止上涨。

Slim预计,即使美联储表示今年将降息,市场也将关注中性利率。如果中性利率更高,可能会导致国债市场波动。

日本央行可能在3月退出负利率,尤其是在昨日未采取行动之后。

Slim认为,即使日元走强,美国仍有继续超越欧洲和一些新兴市场的强劲表现。

中国政策支持,特别是房地产领域,将继续非常谨慎、有针对性和有限。

预计中国经济增长存在下行风险,大约在5%的目标左右,某些领域,尤其是中国房地产行业和人民币将继续面临挑战。

亚洲投资级债券在过去几年中表现出色,尽管市场对本地货币市场持谨慎态度,但预计美元走强的趋势将持续。

中国国家发展和改革委员会(NDRC)未提出具体措施来提振经济,这影响了大宗商品市场,特别是铁矿石价格下跌7%。

中国钢琴国内生产去年同比减半,反映出中国中产阶级消费者在奢侈品上的支出减少。

Transcripts

00:13

It is almost 11 a.m. in Singapore, in Shanghai.

00:16

Welcome to Bloomberg Markets asia. I'm Haslinda Amin.

00:19

Here are the top stories. Asian stocks follow cautious trading on

00:23

Wall Street as investors await U.S. inflation data, which could influence

00:28

the Fed's next move. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Data sees

00:33

the Japanese economy recovering slowly. A majority of BOJ watches expect a hike

00:38

to come in April. And we look ahead to India's largest

00:43

inflation print due later today. We'll hear from the Union Bank of India

00:47

very shortly. Well, in the markets it is trepidation

00:51

and investors sitting on the sidelines, sitting on their hands, waiting for that

00:55

crucial CPI print. Remember that Powell said he just needs

00:59

a little bit more convincing that CPI inflation is headed to, what, 2%?

01:04

Investors looking for more clues on whether or not that recent uptick in

01:08

U.S. consumer prices was a blip.

01:10

Nicola, where we are in terms of the MSCI Asia-Pac index down 3/10 of 1% and

01:16

in terms of the Nikkei 225, it is extending its slump on the back of a

01:20

stronger yen up for a six day expectations.

01:24

The BOJ may exit negative rates perhaps in March, especially on the back of what

01:30

it did not do yesterday. It did not intervene when the topic

01:34

slumped more than 2%. Traditionally, it's jumped in to prop up

01:38

the market at about 2%. CSI 300 index currently in negative

01:43

territory. It is down about 2/10 of 1%.

01:46

It is about China and that lackluster performance of a property banker front

01:51

and center are causing a lot of trepidation, as well as concerns in the

01:57

property market. Yet again, we have Moody's downgrading

02:00

it to junk in terms of the Chinese yuan trading at seven 1847 right now.

02:05

And the yen, of course, is the one we're tracking at this point in time.

02:09

It continues to rally. It's outdone every G10 currency this

02:13

month alone and some say the rally is at a measured pace.

02:17

Well, taking on the way we are in terms of U.S.

02:19

futures, as we count down to the CPI print in the US, a crucial data that

02:24

we're awaiting U.S. futures, treasuries, in fact, not doing

02:28

very much. Little change.

02:29

S&P futures are currently up by 3/10 of 1%.

02:32

Dow Jones futures also in the positive ever so slightly.

02:37

So that CPI print front and center and link to the economy.

02:41

Here's Jamie Dimon warning that the US recession is not yet off the table.

02:48

Now he says the world is pricing in itself lending at probably 70 to 80%, he

02:53

says. I think the chance of a soft landing in

02:55

the next year or two is half of that. The worst case would be stagflation.

03:00

Well, our next guest thinks the risk of a recession is higher than what's been

03:05

priced in. Let's bring in Omar Slim.

03:07

He joins us right now. Omar, I mean, why do you think the

03:11

recession is not off the table, especially when you consider that data

03:14

so far has been pretty resilient? I think the main issue is related to the

03:19

sequencing in terms of what the monetary policy will look like.

03:23

What I mean by that is I think that the Fed will probably err on the side of

03:26

caution before cutting. And the other thing is that those cuts

03:29

really they need to be framed as adjustment cuts.

03:32

That's not necessarily a start of a cutting cycle.

03:36

So if we stay for a prolonged period of time at higher rates, policy rates, even

03:42

if we're seeing some adjustments and if the Fed is probably delaying the cuts to

03:48

the second, I said then or so before, I think when the consensus was that the

03:51

cuts will start in the second quarter, that probably started in the second

03:54

half. So if the market keeps pushing that, I

03:57

think that's going to add to the stress of the economy.

04:00

And I think what's priced in now is this kind of this immaculate soft landing or

04:05

no landing, which the market will increasingly challenge or the narrative

04:09

might slightly change going forward. But why not a soft landing?

04:13

I mean, if you take a look at the data suggesting still US exceptionalism and

04:17

hence we've seen how the dollar has stayed pretty resilient.

04:20

Yeah, why not soft landing? It's really related to the fact that

04:24

there will be damage caused by the higher policy rates and we're starting

04:28

to see some softening in terms of the job market, which really was the main

04:33

driver of the economic strength. And the other reason is that the Fed

04:37

really needs to see a few prints, not really one or two prints, a few prints

04:42

where inflation is trending lower. And I think that will delay the cuts and

04:45

whether there will be some economic some economic damage.

04:48

I'm not saying that we're going to have an economic crisis, but what I'm saying

04:51

is that the chances of a recession, even if it's just a shallow recession, is

04:56

higher than what's priced in. So far from what you have seen, do you

04:59

expect the US exceptionalism to stay and what might that impact be on the

05:03

markets? Can the markets withstand a strong

05:05

dollar? I think that's there's a strong case

05:08

that the U.S. will continue to outperform.

05:10

Yes. And.

05:11

Continue to up to form against what or versus what.

05:13

I think that it will continue to perform highly likely when compared to Europe.

05:19

And also, quite frankly, compared to some of the emerging markets, the most

05:23

important of which is, of course, China. So that will

05:27

continue to we will continue to have a strong US dollar.

05:31

I think we might take a breather here and there, but really I don't see a

05:33

strong case for the for the US to weaken materially.

05:37

What I think that will do is it will cause some stresses in terms of some of

05:41

the particularly some of the more marginal sovereigns.

05:45

And we're starting to see some of that actually that start.

05:47

We saw some of that in certain emerging markets.

05:50

I think that there will be some talks about a broader sovereign pressure, even

05:56

from some of the developed markets because, you know, funding funding at 0%

06:01

or negative is different from funding a three or four or 5%.

06:04

But I think that's a more slow moving phenomenon.

06:06

I don't expect it to materialize this year.

06:08

Okay. So we had Powell saying he just needs a

06:11

little bit more convincing. The cut is coming this year.

06:14

It is a matter of when. CPI that's coming out in the US on

06:19

Tuesday becomes crucial. It is crucial and my view is that

06:23

there's more downside risks than upside risk and only with downside risk.

06:27

I think that the market really needs to see the CPI trend lower for that it for

06:34

the particularly Treasury yields to do rally.

06:37

I think that the what I think it's also again important to frame what Powell is

06:43

saying correctly. I think they will adjust the policy

06:47

rate. I don't think they will signal a the

06:51

start of a cutting phase. And I think that's I think the market

06:54

will shift its attention or its focus to what the neutral rate is.

06:59

And if the neutral rate is higher, I think that could cause the Treasury

07:03

market to wobble or at least to cease to rally.

07:06

And that has implications in terms of the funding across the world.

07:10

Use it. If the neutral rate is higher, the

07:12

neutral rate is likely to be higher. No, I mean, isn't that a fair

07:15

assumption? I think it's a fair assumption.

07:17

But even if you ask the Fed, the neutral rate is a bit of a, you know, an

07:21

academic exercise. They even say that they don't actually

07:24

know where it is. Now, if one asks the question, why is

07:29

the neutral rate higher? What happened over the past few years

07:32

for it to be higher? I think

07:36

on a very long term trajectory, I'm still a believer in the secular

07:40

stagnation, but in the kind of call it the medium term, I think a case can be

07:44

made that the neutral rate is higher because of the fact that the job market

07:49

is relatively resilient. We're seeing some cracks, some weakness

07:52

here and there. And I think the job market has been in

07:55

kind of like a low grade crisis, which was exacerbated by by the pandemic and

07:59

by COVID. But I think that there is a strong case

08:02

to be made that they're higher. So I would agree with their assessment,

08:05

particularly because of the tightness of the job market.

08:08

So given what you've just said, the assessment you have just made, what do

08:11

you make of Treasury valuations right now?

08:14

I don't see for now I don't I think they we would require a very

08:20

strong trend in terms of inflation going lower for the treasuries to continue to

08:24

go lower or the Treasury yields to continue to go lower more correctly.

08:27

So in a nutshell, to answer your question directly, I feel that there's

08:32

downside for Treasury prices or upside for Treasury yields from here.

08:36

Okay. Let's take a look at Japan.

08:37

It is about the yen. Are we looking at a definite yen

08:41

reversal? No, I don't think so.

08:44

At the risk of being slightly anti-climatic, I remember we were having

08:48

that conversation in the summer last year and I, I continue to think that the

08:53

the Bank of Japan will continue to be rather gradual.

08:58

You know, you hear Governor word mention the words slowly, gradual, progressive,

09:03

quite a few times. So I think they will do the near

09:06

minimum. Why?

09:06

For two reasons. One is and I think that's the most

09:09

important reason, is I don't think they actually believe that Japan has an

09:14

inflationary problem. So I think they're kind of calibrating

09:18

from an ultra accommodative monetary policy to one which is a bit more

09:22

sustainable but quite accommodative. And I think the other reason is I don't

09:26

think that they want to risk any financial instability.

09:30

So they're really kind of taking their time and they're hoping that, you know,

09:34

the global macro and the macroeconomic environment will give them some

09:38

breathing time. But my view is that it will be a very

09:42

dovish exit for the Bank of Japan from its current monetary policy.

09:46

So forget about the yen getting to one 3135.

09:49

They're about you going to take a look at the yen at one 4745.

09:53

What are you looking at? I'm I'm looking at 140 to 150.

09:56

Frankly, I think for it to go to one 3135 we need a surprise either from the

10:02

Fed or from the Bank of Japan. It's not my base case scenario.

10:05

Okay. We got to talk about China.

10:08

Just when you thought that things are getting better, we've seen the bottom.

10:10

Here comes. Bunker and the downgrading from Moody's.

10:13

I mean, this is really bad news at a time when foreign investors are just

10:17

beginning to dip their toes. I think it is it adds to the frankly,

10:24

the distress, the major stress that this the distress, frankly, of that that

10:29

segment. I think the the policy support in China,

10:34

particularly when it comes to the China property segment, will continue to be

10:38

very timid, very targeted, very selective, very tepid.

10:42

And what we're seeing is that that's the case even with some developers that have

10:47

government ownership in them, in this case local government.

10:50

But still it is significant. I don't think a major reversal will

10:54

happen, frankly, for the for that segment.

10:57

At best, we see an L-shaped kind of path.

11:02

It's not a policy priority. The NPC also kind of highlighted some of

11:06

the it was a continuing continuation in terms of what they're doing, in terms of

11:10

policy. So our base case scenario is that there

11:13

are downside economic risk for Chinese growth of the around 5% target.

11:19

And we think that certain segments will continue to be challenged.

11:22

Chief among them will be the China property sector and also the yuan.

11:26

I mean, we have perhaps the likelihood of a Biden and Trump election at the end

11:32

of the year. And we've seen how in 2018, at the

11:35

height of tensions between the US and China, we saw the yuan slump 13%.

11:40

I mean, do you foresee further weakness in the currency should Trump come back

11:44

to power? I think that's a very that's a very good

11:47

question, and I think it will be a topic of intense focus for the markets,

11:54

particularly as we get closer to the US elections, even though it seems that we

11:57

know what the what the what the two contentions are.

12:02

The short answer to your question is yes, I think there is downside risk for

12:05

the yuan, but I think the Chinese policymakers will intervene to smoothen

12:08

that out. But we don't see any upside for the yuan

12:11

at this point. Quite the contrary.

12:13

I'd be remiss to not asked you for how your portfolio is looking like.

12:16

Where should you be putting your money and how will you deploying your your

12:20

funds? Look, I think in the context of Asia, we

12:24

still like the Asian investment grade bonds, which frankly have been quite

12:28

tested over the past few years, and they have been quite resilient.

12:30

They outperformed some of the major asset class, similar asset classes

12:34

within Asia high yield. We think that there are some

12:37

idiosyncratic opportunities, but we're still kind of more cautious on the

12:41

market from a beta perspective. And we don't think that, you know, the

12:47

kind of certain rallies and some of the distressed names will continue and the

12:51

local currency market will continue to be rather cautious.

12:55

Again, part of the reason is the US dollar strength, which we continue to we

12:58

expect to continue to be the case. What's changed in the last 12 months for

13:02

you? What's been the biggest change in your

13:03

portfolio? I think what changed over the past few

13:07

months is one, is the duration positioning, the duration management.

13:12

I think the market, the call in the fourth quarter of last year, end of

13:16

October, more precisely, there was a bit of an inflection point in terms of the

13:19

market thinking that the monetary policy has has peaked.

13:23

And I think that has been a major change in terms of the of the market.

13:26

And I think we we traded the duration rather actively back then.

13:30

And I think now we're in the period of of of range trading.

13:33

So the positioning has has changed. The other bit is I think that the

13:37

expectations in terms of China have also become much more lucid.

13:43

We were relatively cautious, but I think the market kind of gravitated towards

13:47

that view over the past year or two years.

13:50

And I think the we still feel quite focused on the policy direction and we

13:54

don't see any major changes there. Good stuff.

13:57

Good insights. Omar Slim Pine Bridge investments.

13:59

It says no reversal in the yen. Well, plenty more ahead.

14:04

Keep it here with us. This is Bloomberg.

14:19

Welcome back. And China's NPC concluded with little to

14:23

cheer about in terms of concrete measures to lift the economy economy out

14:27

of its malaise. And that is impacting the commodities

14:30

space, iron ore in particular coming off a 7% slump, the deepest plunge since

14:36

2022. Disappointment after the NPC failed to

14:40

revive demand expectations. Also, inventories in China are piling up

14:44

at the highest level in about a year. Remember that China's construction is

14:48

pretty lackluster given the clampdown that was seen on the property sector.

14:53

Iron ore currently extending its losses by more than 3%.

14:57

We're seeing losses too, for we're seeing gains too for aluminium as well

15:02

as Shanghai Crude crude Company up by about 1.4%.

15:07

Oil generally steady ahead of the US CPI data, also OPEC's monthly report and

15:12

U.S. stockpiles.

15:13

All that may provide direction for prices in the coming days and weeks.

15:18

Let's delve deeper into commodities. Bloomberg, Steven Mnuchin, she joins us

15:22

now. Talk to us about the outlook in

15:24

particular for commodities. You know, it's a it's a different

15:27

picture, right? So when you look at iron ore, for

15:29

example, you had that graph just on the screen showing huge inventories in

15:34

China. We ended MPAC without any of the big

15:37

stimulus that that commodities have kind of depended on.

15:40

So when you do look at the iron ore picture, it is pretty bearish and

15:44

looking in the future, we have more supply coming on line, right?

15:49

So as more supply comes online, that's going to add more pressure not only to

15:54

prices but also to China's inventory buildup.

15:56

So how long does the Chinese government stick with this kind of strict policy on

16:02

on construction for for new buildings? And also, will they eventually pull in

16:08

some sort of stimulus that would increase the demand for iron ore and

16:13

steel and pull that through now with oil oils, a different kind of story because

16:18

unfortunately, the picture is even more muddled.

16:20

So I would say that oil has been sort of doing a whole lot of nothing over the

16:27

last few weeks. We've been in this around low $80 Brent

16:30

range, and that's because there are a few different kind of countervailing

16:34

forces. You have the Red Sea problems, you have

16:38

OPEC plus reducing their output, both things that are continuing their cuts,

16:43

both things that you would think would increase prices.

16:45

But at the same time, U.S. shale oil has been pretty strong demand

16:50

in China, not as strong as some had hoped.

16:53

So all these things together have kind of painted a

16:56

sort of neutral picture for for oil. And that's why it's been sort of

17:00

treading water. And it's expected to do so over the next

17:03

few weeks. When it comes to iron ore, no sign

17:05

abating in terms of the pressure on the commodity because we just had Volcker

17:10

being downgraded by Moody's, for instance, to junk.

17:12

I mean, how do the markets adjust to the current situation?

17:17

Well, the good thing is the markets have a lot of experience adjusting because

17:21

these markets work in cycles. And there was a cycle that was

17:25

supercharged by the COVID pandemic and then the energy crisis and commodity

17:32

crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, that kind of dual shock of supply

17:38

glut to, you know, supply crunch for a lot of commodities, especially since

17:44

they couldn't get the commodities out of Russia had sent prices surging in 2022.

17:48

And so there was a large investment in new supply.

17:51

People were trying to adjust. There was demand destruction.

17:53

So the market is trying to adjust itself.

17:55

I think there is one thing that is certain, and when you look at

17:59

commodities and I've looked at commodities for about a decade now, when

18:01

you do have these low price environments or high price environments, the markets

18:05

tend to adjust on their own. You do see producers ramping back

18:10

production. You're seeing that in some metal metal

18:12

industry. Some some miners are reducing their

18:15

output to help kind of alleviate where we are in this situation.

18:19

The same thing is likely to happen for oil.

18:21

If oil prices were to fall, shale drillers will quickly come off, but

18:24

we're not seeing that quite at the moment.

18:26

So I think overall, you know, you could see a glut period over a few years, but

18:30

the market will be able to digest that and we'll get back to balance and likely

18:35

back to some sort of supply crunch, sending prices higher again.

18:38

Like you said, a lot of experience and some real pretty sightline right now.

18:41

I had that CPI print out of the US Bloomberg.

18:45

Stephen Kaczynski, we thank you so much for your insights.

18:48

Now China's economic weakness is being seen not only in broader demand for raw

18:52

materials and other commodities, but also among consumers.

18:55

The middle class are feeling the pinch in many areas, even in goods like

18:59

pianos. With domestic production plunging last

19:02

year to half of what it was just four years ago.

19:06

North Asia correspondent Stephen Angle has more.

19:15

The 2010 Chinese movie The Piano in a Factory depicts just how much a piano

19:19

was an aspirational goal of Chinese households in the early nineties as a

19:24

laid off steel worker builds one by hand to try and keep custody of his daughter

19:28

through a bitter divorce. Today, piano stores across China look

19:34

like this, devoid of customers. Once a status symbol to own domestic

19:39

piano production last year plunged to half what it was just four years ago.

19:44

The central government desperately wants households to spend more to fight

19:47

entrenched deflation, but it too is tightening its fiscal belt.

19:51

We will practice frugality and economy and reject extravagance.

19:57

Without question, the average Chinese middle class consumer can be a big

20:01

spender. But we also know that households are

20:04

feeling the pinch from a slowing economy, exacerbated by falling home

20:08

prices and a stock market rout. Now, after the Mao Zedong era social

20:13

safety net was dismantled. Chinese households also became big

20:17

savers. So right now, with the economy

20:20

suffering, they're sort of hitting the pause button on big ticket non-essential

20:24

purchases. The domestic economy is not in a good

20:28

position for consumers to splurge on. The government can certainly do a lot of

20:33

things, but they cannot force people to cheer up and spend.

20:36

As we saw with record travel and box office numbers through the February

20:39

Lunar New Year holiday, many of today's young adults, faced with diminishing job

20:44

prospects and slimming wallets, are choosing leisure over luxury.

20:49

During pandemic, people realize how close you can be leaving this one for

20:54

the Paradise. And then at that moment, it probably

20:57

doesn't matter that much how many materials you have, how many houses you

21:01

have, how many cars you have, but rather your experiences.

21:06

It's a new phenomenon, for sure. For newlyweds previously accustomed to

21:10

having at very least a new home by the time they marry, a year remains a major

21:15

hurdle in planning to get married. And getting married means we have to be

21:18

prepared for property and raising kids. We need to be more prudent.

21:21

Yes, I know we just got married and I'm very hopeful for the future married

21:25

life. I hope we can go through the hardship

21:27

together. It should be share.

21:29

Our happiness can be just hardship. Yes.

21:33

Enjoy our blessings together. After decades of runaway growth, there

21:36

is a palpable sense of unease in Beijing.

21:39

And while piano home and other big ticket items sales are slowing amid less

21:44

than reassuring policy, there's still the somewhat universal need just to be

21:49

heard. Stephen Engle Bloomberg News, Beijing.

21:54

All right. Plenty more ahead.

21:56

Keep it here with us. This is lumber.

22:13

It is a mixed picture for Asia Bank index as we await the CPI print out of

22:18

the U.S., which may dictate the Fed's monetary easing policy, the Hang Seng up

22:24

about 1.3%, reversing losses that we saw in the past few days.

22:27

Cosby in positive territory, up about half a percent right now.

22:31

Of course, we're keeping an eye on the CPI print to ascertain whether or not

22:37

the Fed might move earlier than anticipated.

22:40

In terms of some of the move hour, we're watching

22:44

Hong Kong in particular jumping as much as five and a half percent in Taipei

22:49

after local media Digitimes reported that Hewlett-Packard enterprises will

22:54

tend to Hon. Hai as a long term partner for a major

22:57

order of air service. Getting a lift as well as am I see right

23:01

now currently up by 2/10 of 1%. We're keeping an eye on show me as well

23:06

gaining after announcing its end eve launch.

23:09

I mean, currently trading almost up percent higher on the day.

23:13

And the broader market here is how it's looking.

23:16

Mixed picture CPI, front and center. Plenty more ahead.

23:20

Keep it here with us. This is Bloomberg.

23:42

Shanghai. Shanghai.

23:43

Welcome back. China market is just heading to launch

23:46

CSI 300 index in well, slightly in the negative, down about a 10th of 1%.

23:52

Lackluster, tepid, however you describe it, it is on renewed concerns of a vodka

23:57

vodka downgraded by Moody's to junk. Just when you thought that the worst

24:02

might be over for China's property sector, here we are again worrying about

24:06

its CSI 300 index flat. We have the yuan trading at seven 1778.

24:12

Bear in mind, the CSI 300 index is up about 13% since its February low.

24:18

Sentiment has recovered somewhat. In fact, foreign investors have begun to

24:23

dip their toes into the market, but not enough.

24:26

Today, it ain't happening. CSI 300 Index tilting in the negative

24:31

territory. No markets in Japan back from lunch.

24:34

Bloomberg's April Hong is in the Lion city with me.

24:37

What's up now? What's up?

24:39

The Nikkei, I have to say, because of those expectations, I mean, we saw trade

24:44

is paring some of the bets that we're going to see a move from the central

24:47

bank next week. And this was prompted by the governor

24:52

weigh those comments that he sees weakness in consumption and non durable

24:55

goods. But if you think about it, it's kind of

24:57

hard to fight this chorus of local media reports that the BOJ is really

25:03

considering very seriously a move this month, including the latest from GD and

25:08

how they see faster wage growth potentially prompting the BOJ to exit

25:12

negative rate policy. So the Nikkei is starting the afternoon

25:16

session still paring some of the declines of as much as 1.4% early on in

25:21

the session. This was, of course, after the comments

25:24

from Ueda. But still that strength in the Japanese

25:28

yen, I think is flowing through and putting that pressure on equities.

25:31

Let's split the board and take a look at what we're seeing across assets.

25:34

I think among JGBs, that's when you see the reticence that we are going to see

25:40

potentially that move from the BOJ as the yield on the ten year still hovering

25:46

at the highest level since November last year and across assets.

25:51

So we're seeing those losses, as I say, bleeding through in equities.

25:55

Remember, steep, steep losses on both the Nikkei and topics yesterday.

25:58

It was interesting to see how DOJ didn't step in with ETF.

26:03

Buying has to go through the biggest losers today.

26:06

Overall. Yeah, not many winners to speak of.

26:08

So let's take a look at what we're seeing among the decliners.

26:12

We've talked about Toyota so much amid the yen strength.

26:16

That is another drag on the topics today.

26:19

But it's really interesting to see how Japanese lenders are also losing ground.

26:23

You would think in theory, with profitability and rate hikes potentially

26:27

improving, their stocks should be on showing some upside.

26:31

But even the biggest lender is extending declines today.

26:35

The other theme that we're seeing coming through from commodities and steel

26:39

making related stocks, Mitsui, Marubeni, those are the ones that are dragging the

26:44

Nikkei. Today we saw how iron ore contracts in